Apparently the farmer on CNBC used that quotable statement this AM. Our crops have burned to a crisp. We havnt been lucky enough to catch the scattered showers. The discussion last night was if the corn would make 60 bushels or would we not be able to graze stalks with fears of nitrate poising. The pastures are holding up for now do to a steady stream of investment and rotation, intensive grazing. Im not sure how much longer the grass will hold up with these temps and no rain. That adds an additonal complication of having to feed hay early in the season. This is our third drought in a row. We installed the first pivot in the county this winter but it is resevoir feds. It never rained enough to get it filled. She would have been paid for this year... what might have been.
Crop insurance- As a new farm you have to use the county 10 year average (T yield) the first year. After that they use a 4 year average using you first actual plus 3 t yields. This is my forth year. My yields are 222. 158, 105, 128 (t yield) That makes my APH a respectable 153bu. If I plug in a 60 bushel year as actual for this year it drops my APH to 136bu/acre. Using the T yield stinks as a beginning farmer. Having a great year in year 1 made the four year average great. Having a disaster in year four is going to hurt. In my opinion the fed shouldget out of crop insurance. The current program just encourages big farms to get ever bigger and take huge risk with the government backing them. It makes it more difficult for young farmers to enter.
Hedging... Our crop went bad early and though against all my rules I bought back the 40% of corn we had marketed for 2012. We are 100% at risk now and closely watching the APH insured levels of crop insurance. I dont have any beans sold but Im so small its hard to do anyway. We only have 28 acres of beans out of 200 that are holding on to any great degree. The question from my wife this AM was what about 2013. I think she is right. We will start selling some 13 corn and make lemonade from lemons.