2011 the year for the greatest opportunity in production agriculture!

[dale a. Brandt]

Wow..i want to take the time to recognize the greatest potential for income that i have ever faced in my history of farming. Face it people all the old rules have been thrown out the window with such great opportunities. all those little cultural practices that can produce an extra 5 to 10% better yields should be implemented. 15 bushel an acre increase in corn yield at $6 is an extra $90...x 100 acres  is an extra $9,000...so 500 acres of corn is an extra 45,000$. we better all remember this going into this crop year.

 

Dale

[Nick]

From your "Reward the Rally" discussion I thought you were mostly sold already Dale?

[dale a. Brandt]

yep, you got me.  i sold a large percentage of my crop last dec. to buy a farm.. so do i categorize it as an opportunity cost..or tack it onto the purchase price of the farm.....or simply "don't look back!".  i have had my nerve tested more in the last 5 months  than my entire farming career! i locked in a 25k bushel contract for $5.22 corn for dec. 2011 delivery...now...thats leaving $23,000 on the table today...thats a pick up truck!  GEEEZ!

[Nick]

I know the feeling, we have done much of the same....I guess don't look back is as good advice as any...the markets are driving me nuts too, but yes, for someone who have not tied up "some" of his crop, I would think now would be a good time to lock in costs and lock in markets too. We are looking at 2012 at the moment, but unfortunately we can not lock in all inputs at this point, so it's a lot bigger risk to do bigger quantities...

[Nick]

But yes, there is and will be some great opportunities this coming year if we can get the crop in the ground and to the bin.

[Matt Duncan]

Hold on to your ass next year though inputs were a little behind the ball this year and if things stay the same they make up for it next year.

[Nick]

totally agree....problem is, how do you figure out where to sell at if you don't know what inputs are going to be? You might think $6 corn now is great, yet you might need $7 corn to pay the bills next year....who knows what these markets are up to?

[Matt Duncan]

thats the million dollar question.

[Michael Lewis]

Nick,

The markets are driving us crazy as well.  We locked in a lot for 2011 around 4.85 thinking that was a good price..now I'm kicking myself.  I'm watching the basis to see if it will tighten up so I can squeeze as much profit out of those hedge contracts.  We are looking at 2012 but no one will go out that far right now.  Once we have 2012 hedged some we are going to try and lock inputs in ASAP.

What is diesel going to do this spring?  Have you filled everything up now or you waiting?

We have the potential to gain additional acres for 2012 so looking forward to that.

 

[Nick]

We did a little wheat and a little corn for 2012. Considering the possibility of inflation in near future I have a hard time doing more. We will probably do some Diesel here shortly as we will need it, but it's hard to fill tanks at over $3/gl. Crude is the one thing we have absolutely NO control off....

 

 

[dale a. Brandt]

buy a tanker full!!!

[Jonathan Dansel]

I agree with you, i wish some of my seed customers would think this way....some won't buy the stacked up, VT3's, or VT3Pro cause it is $20, $30 or sometimes $40 a bag higher than what they are planting from another company...It doesn't take many more bushels an acre..it takes approx. 2 bushel/ac. of yield advantage (@$6 corn on irrigated acres) to pay for $30 more dollars a bag of a Pro hybrid to take out loss for ear worm damage...but you can't get some guys to look at the math, just the per bag cost scares them

  I wish i still had all of my bushels left to market..i had contracted to much a few months before harvest at $3.98...corn got down to like 3.25, i thought i had done something great then...now i shake my head everyday the market jumps!  But i had to have some cash flow so i needed to sell some anyway..but most of my inputs are paid for in 11 free and clear and looking to lock in some Dec. corn...looks to be a very profitable year, God willing we get it in the bin!  I still had 20K bu left to sell after contracts were filled...i pulled the trigger when i got 5.66 after basis and all, once again, thought i cut a fat hog....here we are a dollar and month later!  I sold 5K more this morning at 6.64 after basis and was thrilled with that no matter what happens from here...if i can't be happy with that price with inputs already paid for i better go home.  A writer on DTN was predicting we will see a top of the market at about 7.65 after the other day's reports and Argentina's problems...if there are any planting glitches come spring we will definately see that number i think....i better quit, i wrote a novel...these corn prices are enough to get a guy excited though, can't help it! haha

[Jonathan Dansel]

$30 more dollars...now thats impressive! haha just reread it